Disney’s live-action Moana is tracking for an opening of about $85 million in the United States and Canada when it reaches theaters on July 10, according to pre-release tracking reported by Deadline. The projected debut would land in line with recent live-action remakes but well below the franchise’s animated high mark.
The figure matches Universal’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon, which opened to $84.6 million in 2025, and edges past the 2016 animated Moana’s $82 million five-day Thanksgiving start. It trails 2024’s Moana 2, which debuted to $139.7 million. Forecasts have ranged from $80 million to $105 million for the three-day opening, with full domestic runs projected between $240 million and $305 million.
Behind The Scenes Live Action Moana
Directed by Thomas Kail, the remake stars Catherine Laga’aia as Moana, taking over from the animated films’ Auli’i Cravalho, with Dwayne Johnson reprising the demigod Maui. The pre-release tracking has skewed toward women over 25, performing above How to Train Your Dragon but below Moana 2.
An opening near $85 million would land below the debuts that built Disney’s live-action remake business and beneath the level a film carrying a reported budget above $200 million typically needs to turn a profit. Disney has not commented on the tracking.
The remake opens into a crowded summer. Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is tracking for a $140 million to $150 million-plus run this month, Illumination’s Minions & Monsters arrives July 1, and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey follows a week after Moana on July 17, according to Box Office Theory.
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