Disney’s live-action Moana is tracking for an opening of about $85 million in the United States and Canada when it reaches theaters on July 10, according to pre-release tracking reported by Deadline. The projected debut would land in line with recent live-action remakes but well below the franchise’s animated high mark.
The figure matches Universal’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon, which opened to $84.6 million in 2025, and edges past the 2016 animated Moana’s $82 million five-day Thanksgiving start. It trails 2024’s Moana 2, which debuted to $139.7 million. Forecasts have ranged from $80 million to $105 million for the three-day opening, with full domestic runs projected between $240 million and $305 million.
Directed by Thomas Kail, the remake stars Catherine Laga’aia as Moana, taking over from the animated films’ Auli’i Cravalho, with Dwayne Johnson reprising the demigod Maui. The pre-release tracking has skewed toward women over 25, performing above How to Train Your Dragon but below Moana 2.
An opening near $85 million would land below the debuts that built Disney’s live-action remake business and beneath the level a film carrying a reported budget above $200 million typically needs to turn a profit. Disney has not commented on the tracking.
The remake opens into a crowded summer. Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is tracking for a $140 million to $150 million-plus run this month, Illumination’s Minions & Monsters arrives July 1, and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey follows a week after Moana on July 17, according to Box Office Theory.
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